Global carbon emissions from fossil fuels have hit a record high in 2024, reaching 37.4 billion tonnes. Despite the urgent need to reduce emissions to slow climate change, there is no indication that the world has reached a peak in fossil CO2 emissions. In addition to emissions from fossil fuels, land-use change activities such as deforestation are also contributing to a rise in total CO2 emissions, which are projected to reach 41.6 billion tonnes in 2024. While land-use change CO2 emissions have declined over the past decade, both fossil and land-use change emissions are set to rise this year.
The research team involved in this study, which included scientists from various institutions around the world, highlighted the dramatic impacts of climate change and the urgent need for rapid and deep cuts to fossil fuel emissions to stay below a 2°C warming threshold. Despite some positive progress at the country level, a global peak in fossil CO2 emissions remains elusive. The researchers stressed the importance of accelerating emissions reductions worldwide to put global emissions on a downward trajectory towards net zero. Until net zero CO2 emissions are achieved globally, temperatures will continue to rise, leading to increasingly severe impacts of climate change.
In terms of fossil fuel emissions, coal, oil, and gas are all projected to increase globally in 2024, with China, the US, India, the European Union, and the rest of the world all showing varying trends in emissions. While emissions from land-use change have decreased over the past decade, deforestation emissions are expected to rise in 2024. Current technology-based Carbon Dioxide Removal methods are only a small fraction of what is needed to offset fossil fuel emissions. Atmospheric CO2 levels are on the rise, reaching 422.5 parts per million in 2024, 52% above pre-industrial levels. Emissions from fires have been above average, with wildfires in Canada and drought in Brazil contributing significantly.
The study also estimates the remaining “carbon budget” before global warming consistently exceeds 1.5°C, with a 50% chance of reaching this threshold in about six years at the current rate of emissions. This estimate is subject to uncertainties, primarily related to non-CO2 agents and their additional warming contributions. The Global Carbon Budget report is produced annually by an international team of scientists and provides a comprehensive overview of global carbon emissions and their impact on climate change. The 2024 edition of the report will be published in the journal Earth System Science Data, highlighting the urgent need for collective action to reduce emissions and mitigate the effects of global warming.