Former President Donald Trump has seen his odds of winning the 2024 presidential election improve according to a prominent bookmaker due to changes in Pennsylvania and Arizona. Initially, Trump had odds of 4/6 for victory compared to 6/4 for his Democratic rival, Vice President Kamala Harris. However, later on, his odds improved to 5/8 while Harris’ odds worsened to 8/5. Recent polling indicates a close contest with Harris leading by 1.2 points in the national vote, but Trump could still win due to the Electoral College system.
The change in overall Betfair odds was driven by improvements in Trump’s odds in battleground states, particularly in Pennsylvania and Arizona. Trump’s odds of winning Pennsylvania increased from 52 percent to 58 percent, and in Arizona, they improved from 73 percent to 78 percent over the same period. According to a Betfair spokesperson, bettors are increasingly showing faith in Trump, with the Republicans getting closer to victory in these key swing states. Trump is currently ahead in five out of the seven swing states.
An artificial intelligence-based model created by Aaru for Semafor media outlet favored Harris to win five out of seven battleground states. The model, based on the creation of AI bots representing voters, predicted Harris winning in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, while Trump led in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina. Despite this, the final election forecast by 538 gave Harris a 50 percent chance of winning, slightly ahead of Trump’s 49 percent. On the other hand, a Decision Desk HQ/The Hill forecast gave Trump a 54 percent chance of victory to Harris’ 46 percent.
Speaking to reporters in Palm Beach, Florida, Trump stated that he would concede if he loses a fair election, emphasizing the need for transparency. He remains firm in his belief that the 2020 presidential election was stolen from him through fraud, despite multiple court rejections and denials from independent election experts. The odds in the 2024 election are fluctuating as more updates come in, with Trump’s chances improving in key states like Pennsylvania and Arizona, indicating a highly contested race ahead.
Overall, the fate of the 2024 presidential election remains uncertain, with close odds and differing predictions. Trump’s odds have improved in states crucial to winning the Electoral College, but Harris is also favored to win in key battleground states. Polling indicates a tight race, with Harris holding a slight lead in the national vote, but Trump could still secure victory based on Electoral College outcomes. As the election unfolds, both candidates are hoping for a fair process and a clear outcome to determine the next leader of the United States.
