The Virtual Tout, a prediction market created by Northwestern University data scientist Thomas Miller, is forecasting a victory for Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election. Miller, who accurately predicted Donald Trump’s victory in 2016, has been fluctuating between predicting a win for Harris and Trump, with his latest prediction favoring the Democratic candidate. The forecast indicates that the Harris-Tim Walz ticket is projected to win 301 electoral votes, while the Trump-JD Vance campaign is predicted to gain 237 electoral votes.
On November 2, The Virtual Tout website noted a significant increase in trading volume and volatility in the past week, with 274 thousand shares traded on contracts for the two major parties. This surge in activity may help explain the sudden change in prediction between Harris and Trump only a few days apart. Miller, who relies on prediction markets rather than traditional polls, uses PredictIt, the largest U.S. political betting site, to gauge the contest between the candidates. He believes that prediction markets, where people bet on future outcomes, serve as a leading indicator of election results.
The Virtual Tout website acknowledges that prediction markets tend to show a Republican bias and has made adjustments to account for this in its analysis. However, the degree of bias in the prediction markets for the 2024 election remains uncertain. Other prediction markets, such as PredictIt, have also forecasted a victory for Harris, while Trump maintained a lead on Polymarket as of the latest data. Despite these predictions, polling aggregates suggest that the election is still very close, making Election Day forecasts uncertain and potentially a toss-up.
Overall, the prediction made by The Virtual Tout that Kamala Harris will win the 2024 election comes from data scientist Thomas Miller, who has been accurate in his predictions in the past, including Trump’s 2016 victory. The shift in forecasts between Harris and Trump on The Virtual Tout website can be attributed to high trading volume and volatility leading up to the election. Miller relies on prediction markets rather than polling data to make his predictions, as he believes that people betting on outcomes provide a more accurate representation of future events. Despite these predictions, the election remains a close race according to polling aggregates, making the final outcome uncertain.
