The LNP recently reversed the preference flows that allowed the Greens to win South Brisbane in the last election, potentially paving the way for Labor to reclaim the seat. First-term Greens MP Amy MacMahon was leading in primary votes, with Labor’s Barbara O’Shea in second place, meaning preferences from the third-place LNP candidate will likely determine the winner. LNP how-to-vote cards in South Brisbane suggested giving preferences to Labor over the Greens, which could tip the scales in O’Shea’s favor. This decision could also give the LNP the opportunity to revisit plans for a Gabba rebuild for the 2032 Olympic and Paralympic Games.
Queensland’s first elected Greens MP, Michael Berkman, expressed hope that MacMahon would be able to hold on to her seat despite the shift in preference flows. Berkman himself was trailing in primary votes in his seat of Maiwar, but was confident that Labor preferences would help him secure victory. The Greens had initially hoped to pick up four or more seats in the election, but the reversal of preference flows has halted their electoral momentum, impacting their prospects of gaining additional seats both at the state and federal level.
Despite the swing towards the LNP, Berkman blamed Labor for the Greens’ poor performance in the election. He accused the now-opposition party of stealing policies related to public transport fares, free school lunches, and incentives for bulk-billing GP clinics from the Greens. This strategy allowed the LNP to also adopt these policies, appealing to voters who were drawn to the Greens’ progressive platform. Berkman criticized Labor for focusing on seats that were potential prospects for the Greens rather than effectively challenging the LNP, which ultimately led to the conservative government’s victory in Queensland.
The Greens’ inability to secure as many seats as they had anticipated marks a significant setback for the party, which had been gaining momentum in recent elections. The reversal of preference flows in South Brisbane and other seats has impeded their electoral insurgency, limiting their ability to make further gains at the state and federal level. Despite the disappointing results, the Greens remain hopeful that MacMahon and other candidates will be able to hold on to their seats and continue championing their progressive policies in government.
Looking ahead, the Greens will need to reassess their electoral strategy and messaging to regain momentum and attract more voters in future elections. They may need to refine their policies, increase outreach efforts to key demographics, and improve coordination with like-minded parties to strengthen their electoral prospects. While the setback in this election is significant, the Greens will likely continue to advocate for environmental sustainability, social justice, and other progressive causes, remaining a key player in Queensland’s political landscape. As the party reflects on the election results, they will need to adapt and regroup to ensure they remain a viable and influential force in Queensland politics.
