Former President Donald Trump has publicly vowed not to cut Social Security and Medicare, but experts warn his policy proposals could make the programs run out of cash. A new analysis released Monday projects Trump’s policy agenda would deplete Social Security’s funds sooner than expected, in just six years. The Republican Party has publicly committed not to cut Social Security or Medicare if Trump wins the White House, but comments Trump made in March suggested he was open to cutting entitlement programs. Trump’s campaign argued he was talking about cutting waste, not entitlements, and would strongly protect Social Security and Medicare in his second term.
One of Trump’s proposals includes eliminating the tax on Social Security benefits that many seniors pay, which experts believe will speed up the timeline for Social Security becoming insolvent. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget projected that exempting taxes on benefits would result in Social Security and Medicare receiving $1.6 trillion less in revenue between 2026 and 2035, causing Social Security to become insolvent in 2032. Coupling that exemption with other Trump proposals, such as ending taxes on tips, raising tariffs, and deporting undocumented immigrants, would add approximately $2.3 trillion to Social Security’s deficit and cause the program to become insolvent by fiscal year 2031.
Trump’s proposed tax cut on Social Security would not provide much benefit to middle-class Americans, with recipients earning between $32,000 and $60,000 annually saving approximately $90 in taxes, while the highest earners would receive $2,500. The lowest-income Americans who earn less than $32,000 are not taxed on their Social Security benefits. Immigration also plays a role in Social Security finances, with tax experts saying that Trump’s plan for mass deportations would hurt the program by removing contributions from undocumented immigrants who are employed in salaried U.S. jobs and pay into Social Security.
Vice President Kamala Harris has not yet unveiled a specific proposal involving Social Security but has championed the program. She co-sponsored legislation in the Senate that would expand Social Security, increase benefits for some beneficiaries, and raise more money for the program by expanding the payroll tax to higher incomes. Harris has pointed to Project 2025, a policy agenda spearheaded by right-wing groups, to suggest that Trump would cut Social Security and Medicare if elected. However, Project 2025 does not explicitly call for cutting Social Security or Medicare, though it proposes various reforms.
The economy has become a central issue in the November election, with Social Security being a key concern for voters. Trump has highlighted his plan to repeal Social Security taxes on the campaign trail, while the left has criticized him for his Social Security views. Trump’s vice presidential candidate, Sen. JD Vance, supports raising money for Social Security through a combination of getting more men back into the workforce, increasing wages, and increasing tariffs. The left has put up billboards criticizing Trump over Social Security, accusing him of planning to slash funding and cut taxes for the wealthy. Overall, experts warn that Trump’s proposals could deplete Social Security funds sooner than expected, impacting the program’s solvency.
