Early voting for the upcoming election has seen record-breaking numbers, with over 21 million people already casting their ballots. Majority of these votes have been cast in person, with Democrats voting earlier and by mail more than Republicans. However, party registration data is not reported in all states, making it difficult to determine which party is benefiting the most from early voting. Former President Donald Trump has urged his supporters to vote early, leading to a surge in Republican early voting, especially in swing states like Nevada, Arizona, and North Carolina.
The age demographic of early voters also plays a significant role, with 48 percent of early voters being over 65 years old, a group that traditionally leans towards the Republican Party. Younger generations, who are more likely to vote Democrat, may influence outcomes closer to Election Day. Polls currently show Trump leading in Pennsylvania, Arizona, North Carolina, and Georgia, while Harris is ahead in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada. However, the race is still considered a toss-up with no clear winner as both candidates are fighting for electoral votes in battleground states.
Despite early voting data indicating a surge in Republican turnout, it is still uncertain how this will impact the final election results. Early voting patterns can change daily, and it is essential to note that party registration data does not specify who voters are casting their ballots for. Democrats have historically relied on a strong early vote to offset Republican advantages on Election Day, but with Trump’s encouragement, GOP supporters are turning out in record numbers ahead of November 5.
The University of Florida Election Lab’s tracker has shown a significant increase in early voting numbers compared to previous years, with swing states like Georgia and North Carolina surpassing previous records. While Democrats have the edge in early voting numbers so far, Republicans are catching up, especially in states where they traditionally have a strong presence on Election Day. As the election approaches, the early electorate’s composition may change, making it challenging to predict the final outcome based on current data.
Both the Trump and Harris campaigns have been contacted for comments on the early voting trends and their potential impacts on the election. With over 62 million mail-in ballots requested and millions already cast, the 2024 election is shaping up to have one of the highest voter turnouts in recent history. As Americans continue to exercise their civic duty through early voting, the final results on Election Day will ultimately determine the next President of the United States.
