Early voting for the upcoming election has seen a surge in enthusiasm as both in-person and mail-in ballots have started pouring in across the country. The race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is expected to be close, with results likely coming down to their performance in seven swing states. States have long allowed early voting for certain groups, with many expanding eligibility in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
In the last presidential election, mail ballots tended to skew Democratic, with 60% of Democrats voting by mail compared to 32% of Republicans. As of now, over 15 million ballots have been cast nationwide. The seven battleground states have seen a significant number of early ballots being cast, either by mail or in person. The prevalence of early voting has increased over the past two decades, although this does not necessarily determine which candidate is winning as fewer early votes are expected compared to previous elections.
Democrats and Republicans are expected to be less divided on early voting this election cycle. Unlike in 2020, Trump and the GOP are no longer discouraging their supporters from casting an early ballot. Some states also offer breakdowns of early ballots by party affiliation, race, and age, which may give the impression that one candidate or party is doing better than the other. However, early vote data does not reveal how an individual actually voted, as states only release actual vote counts on election night.
With the COVID-19 pandemic no longer at the forefront of voters’ minds, many are expected to be more willing to show up and vote in person on Election Day. Polls suggest that around four in 10 voters will vote before November 5. Four years ago, Democrats won the total early vote by 11 points, but a smaller partisan gap is expected this time around. While early vote data shows the party registration of some voters, it does not indicate how they actually voted. States do not release actual vote counts until election night, making it difficult to determine the true outcome of the race based on early voting data.
The race between Trump and Harris is expected to be close, with results potentially coming down to their performance in the seven key swing states. Early voting has seen a surge in enthusiasm, with many Americans casting their ballots either by mail or in person. While early vote data does not always accurately predict the outcome of the race, it provides valuable insights into voter behavior and trends leading up to Election Day. States continue to release data on early ballots, which may offer some indication of which party or candidate is currently leading, but the true results will only be known once all votes are counted on Election Night.
