The new polling data from CBS News and YouGov indicates that former President Donald Trump is leading in the race to pick up 11 electoral votes in Arizona. The survey of 1,439 registered voters shows Trump with a three-point lead over Vice President Kamala Harris, with 51% to 48%. The poll also reveals that only 5% of respondents believe that things in America are going very well, with just 25% saying things are going somewhat well. This indicates that only three out of 10 Grand Canyon State voters believe that the country is on the right track under the Harris-Biden administration.
It is evident from the polling data that Arizona voters are feeling economic anxiety and dissatisfaction with the current national direction. Only 10% of respondents think that the economy is very good, with just 24% willing to say that it is fairly good. The majority of Republicans and independents are not satisfied with the state of the nation, with only 8% of Republicans and 29% of independents happy with the current situation. A significant number of respondents (82%) consider the economy a major factor in their votes, with 73% claiming that inflation is also a crucial issue. This suggests that Bidenomics has not been favorable for the Democratic ticket in Arizona.
One of the key concerns for Arizona voters is the rising prices and economic challenges. A substantial 69% of Arizonans believe that prices are increasing, and only 30% think that Vice President Harris can address the issue effectively. In contrast, 48% of respondents believe that Trump has a plan to control the high cost of living. Another significant issue for voters is the US-Mexico border, with 57% expressing concerns about it. Many voters believe that Trump would prioritize American citizens, while a substantial percentage thinks Harris would prioritize recent immigrants.
In terms of social issues, the polling data shows that Trump’s nuanced federalist position on abortion is resonating with voters. A significant proportion of Republican voters (39%) support keeping abortion legal, indicating that social-conservative dogma may not be the winning strategy in the state. Fifty-five percent of voters believe that the GOP nominee would let states decide on abortion, while a majority believe that Harris would push for national legalization, infringing on states’ rights. This contrast in positions is significant for voters in Arizona.
While the top of the ticket shows promising results for Republicans, the Senate race in Arizona may not lead to a victory party for them. Democratic Representative Ruben Gallego has opened up a significant lead over GOP nominee Kari Lake, with a 54% to 45% advantage. The polling data suggests that independents are favoring Gallego by 15 points. The perception of Lake as an extremist by 59% of voters and Gallego as reasonable by 60% could be a significant factor in this race. Additionally, a majority of Gallego voters are motivated to vote for him to oppose the GOP nominee.
