Former President Donald Trump has been disputed on the campaign trail regarding his claims that violent crime is falling in America, with fact-checks citing FBI statistics. However, the FBI recently adjusted its figures for 2022, revealing that violent crime incidents actually increased by 4.9% from 2021 to 2022. This change was not initially highlighted in the FBI’s annual crime figures press release in September 2023, which stated violent crime decreased by roughly 3%.
The Crime Prevention Research Center was the first to identify the FBI’s subtle adjustment, pointing out discrepancies in the data from 2004 to 2022. College of William & Mary economics professor Carl Moody raised concerns about the significant changes in the reported violent crime data for 2021 and 2022 without a clear explanation, which could affect the reliability of the FBI’s data. The FBI did not immediately respond to requests for comments on these revisions.
During a presidential debate in September 2023, former President Trump was fact-checked by ABC News moderator David Muir, who referenced the FBI’s claim that overall violent crime is decreasing in the country. Many fact checks of Trump’s claims on crime rely on the FBI’s data, which has faced criticisms about its reliability. The FBI transitioned to a new system of collecting crime data in 2021, the National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS), replacing the Summary Reporting System (SRS).
The NIBRS contains more detailed crime information than the SRS, but law enforcement reporting rates have decreased as some municipalities struggled with the transition. An analysis revealed that the FBI is missing data from about a fifth of key local agencies, with reporting rates dropping below 70% in 2021 for the first time in at least two decades. Additionally, concerns have been raised about the FBI’s reliance on self-reporting of crimes that often go unreported, potentially impacting the accuracy of the data.
The FBI’s press release in October 2023 initially projected a decrease in national violent crime of 1.7% in 2022 compared to 2021 estimates, with a 2.1% reduction in violent crime rate relative to the US population. However, the bureau’s adjustment later indicated a 4.5% increase in the violent crime rate over the same period. These revisions highlight the need for transparency and clear communication when reporting crime data to maintain public trust and confidence in the reliability of such information. Moving forward, it is essential for law enforcement agencies and organizations like the FBI to address concerns and provide explanations for any significant updates or adjustments to crime statistics.
