American officials are anticipating that Israel will retaliate against Iran for an attack that occurred earlier in the month before November 5. This retaliation is expected to take place regardless of the timing of the US election. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is described as being sensitive to the potential political ramifications of Israel’s actions in the US, has been considering the timeline and parameters of this retaliation.
The conflict in the Middle East has become an important issue in the American election, with President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris facing pressure from progressives for their handling of the situation. On the other hand, Republicans, including former President Donald Trump, have accused the administration of mismanaging the crisis. As the election nears, the administration has started pressuring Israel to improve humanitarian conditions in Gaza. A recent letter from Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin warned Israel that a failure to provide more aid to Gaza could result in a cutoff of military assistance.
The dynamics surrounding this situation are complex, with the warning coming at a time when an advanced US air defense system arrived in Israel to help defend against potential Iranian attacks. The uncertainties surrounding the conflict in the weeks leading up to Election Day are a concern for both presidential campaigns. While not a top-tier issue for many voters, the crisis has complicated Harris’ efforts in Michigan, a state with a significant Arab-American population.
Netanyahu is cognizant of how a potential counterstrike could impact the presidential race and the ongoing diplomacy between the two nations. Biden has refrained from discouraging Israel from responding forcefully to Iran’s attack but has urged for a measured reprisal. The US administration has been cautious in its statements regarding the timing and targets of Israel’s retaliatory strike, with Netanyahu informing Biden that Israel does not intend to target Iran’s nuclear or oil sites during this round of retaliation.
It remains unclear whether Israel’s attacks on Iran will be limited to physical targeting of military assets or involve a cyber warfare component. The US will closely monitor Israel’s counterattack and the response it elicits from Iran. The Biden administration hopes to prevent a full-fledged war from breaking out in the Middle East. Biden and Netanyahu have had discussions regarding Israel’s plans for responding to Iran, with the US urging for a measured response.
Efforts to shape Israel’s response to Iran have played out publicly, with Biden publicly advocating for a measured approach. American officials are concerned about the deteriorating humanitarian situation in Gaza and have set a number of benchmarks for Israel to meet, including allowing a certain number of aid trucks per day into Gaza. While the letter from Blinken and Austin was not signed by Biden, it was reflective of the president’s previous efforts in communication with Netanyahu.
