Moscow’s forces have recaptured territory from Ukraine in the Kursk oblast, two months after Ukraine staged an incursion into Russian territory. Ukraine launched an operation into the lightly defended Russian region that borders the Sumy oblast on August 6, potentially providing leverage for future negotiations with Vladimir Putin. Russian forces have been conducting a counteroffensive in the region for the fifth day in a row, recapturing approximately 46 square miles of territory, according to information from the Ukrainian open-source intelligence Telegram channel DeepState. There are conflicting reports of Russian successes in the operation, with differing accounts from sources such as the Akhmat special forces commander Apti Alaudinov and the DeepState channel.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) released a map on October 15, 2024, showing the state of play in Russia’s Kursk region. According to the ISW, Russian troops are starting to recapture territory that was lost during Ukraine’s incursion two months prior. Pro-Moscow military bloggers have reported that Russian forces have cleared several villages and gained control of areas previously occupied by Ukraine. The ISW’s latest map highlights these purported gains, but the think tank notes that there is no independent confirmation of these claims and data only suggests a Russian presence five miles from Sudzha, the district’s administrative center. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has stated that despite Russian attempts to break their defenses, Ukrainian forces are holding on and fighting back.
Russian milblogger Boris Rozhin has mentioned that the muddy season has started, providing an advantage to Russian forces due to their reliance on tracked vehicles compared to Ukrainian wheeled vehicles. The ISW had previously noted that the muddy season likely influenced Moscow’s decision to intensify their counterattacks in Kursk. According to a soldier from Ukraine’s Aidar battalion, Stanislav Bunyatov, bad weather has been interfering with the operations of drones and military equipment. He mentioned that drones are ineffective in the rain and vehicles are getting stuck, noting that artillery cannot be replaced by drones or mining. The challenging terrain conditions are affecting both sides in the conflict.
Ukraine’s commander in chief Oleksandr Syrskyi stated that Russia had redeployed around 50,000 troops to the region, which weakened their position on the battlefield in Ukraine. Despite this, Russian forces have continued their offensive in Kursk, making inroads in the region. The situation on the ground remains complex, with conflicting reports about the progress of both Russian and Ukrainian forces in the area. The ongoing conflict highlights the tensions between Russia and Ukraine, with both sides continuing to engage in military operations amidst challenging weather conditions and terrain. As the situation evolves, it remains to be seen how it will impact future negotiations and the overall dynamic between the two countries.
