A recent poll of likely voters in Erie and Northampton counties in Pennsylvania indicates that Donald Trump may be gaining ground in these key swing counties, potentially affecting the outcome of the presidential election. These counties, which have been predictive in previous election cycles, backed Barack Obama, Donald Trump, and Joe Biden in the past. However, they now appear to be favoring Trump over Kamala Harris, with the former president holding a one-point lead in the polls as of early October.
The poll also revealed that Trump has a significant lead over Biden-Harris when it comes to job performance, with half of the respondents believing that Trump did a better job during his presidency. Despite the media’s protection of Vice President Harris from criticism, voters in these counties do not appear to be swayed, as Harris has lower approval ratings than Trump, particularly among men under the age of 55. Additionally, Governor Tim Walz of Minnesota, who is perceived as friendly with “school shooters,” is not well-received in these bellwether counties.
Furthermore, there is evidence that Democrats are experiencing “buyer’s remorse” over not selecting Governor Josh Shapiro as Harris’s running mate. A hypothetical Harris-Shapiro ticket would be ahead by one point in the poll, with a ten-point net shift in Harris’s favor among swing voters. Cygnal, the pollster, suggests that Harris’s decision to not choose Shapiro could potentially cost her the presidency in Pennsylvania, a crucial battleground state that could determine the election’s outcome.
Josh Shapiro is viewed favorably by voters, with a 14-point advantage over Governor Tim Walz among all voters. The Democratic ticket is struggling with working-class voters, as Trump leads with union households and voters with lower salaries. However, Harris has a lead among voters making $100,000 or more per year. These findings suggest that Trump’s appeal among certain demographics and the Democratic ticket’s challenges in connecting with working-class voters could impact the election’s outcome in Pennsylvania.
Overall, the polling data from Erie and Northampton counties in Pennsylvania indicates a shift towards Donald Trump and away from Kamala Harris in the upcoming presidential election. Trump’s lead in job performance ratings and approval ratings, particularly among specific demographics, poses a challenge for the Democratic ticket. Additionally, the potential impact of Governor Josh Shapiro as Harris’s running mate and the preferences of working-class voters suggest potential vulnerabilities for the Democratic ticket in Pennsylvania. As Election Day approaches, Trump has the opportunity to further increase his lead by appealing to key demographics in these important swing counties.
