Senator Ted Cruz is in a surprisingly competitive race in Texas as recent polls indicate his Democratic opponent, U.S. Rep. Colin Allred, is gaining traction. While Texas has historically been a solidly Republican state, recent polling has shown that Cruz could be struggling to defend his seat. A poll conducted by Morning Consult showed Allred one point ahead of Cruz, while another poll by Emerson College and The Hill showed Cruz only 4 points ahead. Despite these results, some experts still classify the Senate race in Texas as a likely Republican seat.
Donald Trump’s campaign manager, Chris LaCivita, expressed concern over the state of the Senate race in Texas and called for professional help to support Cruz. Fundraising hauls by the Democrats in the state have also raised concerns among Republicans. Allred joined the race in 2023 and has raised about $38.4 million, lagging behind Cruz’s fundraising of $59.6 million. Despite having less money in his campaign coffers, Allred has seen support from liberal donors who are eager to unseat Cruz, who narrowly defeated Beto O’Rourke in 2018.
While some experts believe Cruz is still favored to win in Texas, others argue that the state has been shifting politically and the race is increasingly competitive. The electoral environment and changing demographics in Texas are seen as factors in determining the outcome of the Senate race. Although Cruz’s close call with O’Rourke in 2018 took place in a favorable year for Democrats, the upcoming election is still expected to be a close race. Despite the narrowing of the Republican advantage in Texas, it is still considered unlikely that Allred will defeat Cruz in November’s election.
Experts are divided on the likelihood of Cruz losing in Texas, with some believing that it is highly unlikely while others see the race as a tossup. The Morning Consult poll showing Allred in the lead is the only one to have done so in this election cycle. Cruz’s previous narrow victory over O’Rourke in 2018 took place during a year that favored Democratic candidates, leaving uncertainty about the outcome of the upcoming election. While Republicans still hold an advantage in Texas, the diminishing advantage and changing electoral environment suggest a close race in November.
