The upcoming presidential election is predicted to be close, leading many to wonder if they should prepare for contingencies. One possible scenario is a contingent election, where the House selects the President and the Senate picks the Vice President if no candidate reaches the magic number of 270 electoral votes. This has only occurred three times in American history, with the most recent one happening in 1837. Various scenarios can lead to a tie in the Electoral College, triggering a contingent election.
In a contingent election, each state delegation in the House gets one vote. As of now, Republicans control 26 state delegations, while Democrats control 22, with two delegations tied. The breakdown of each Congressional delegation could change after the 2024 elections, affecting the outcome of a contingent election. State delegations that have a chance of flipping one way or the other, such as Alaska, Arizona, Colorado, Maine, Nevada, and Minnesota, could play a crucial role in determining the outcome.
North Carolina is a state to watch, as its House delegation is evenly split at 7-7 between Democrats and Republicans, but Republicans are expected to gain in the House delegation after redistricting. This could potentially favor Republicans in a contingent election. Other states like Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Virginia also have closely contested House delegations that could impact the outcome of a contingent election. The final makeup of these delegations will be determined after the 2024 elections.
If the House is tasked with selecting the President in a contingent election, Democrats will need to defend their current battleground states, avoid ties in key states like Nevada, Colorado, and Maine, and potentially pick up a few seats in closely contested delegations. However, based on current projections, Republicans are likely to control a majority of state delegations in 2025, which could work against Vice President Harris if the election goes to the House. The outcome of a contingent election is uncertain, as it is an archaic exercise that has not been used in modern Congress.
In the past, contingent elections have resulted in unexpected outcomes, such as the election of John Quincy Adams in 1825 despite not winning the popular vote. The lack of recent experience with this process makes it difficult to predict how a contingent election would unfold in today’s political climate. The outcome of the 2024 elections will play a crucial role in determining the makeup of state delegations and the potential outcome of a contingent election. It remains to be seen how the intricate dynamics of state delegations will impact the selection of the next President in the event of a tied Electoral College.
