Germans in Saxony and Thuringia are voting in an election that could see the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) become the strongest party. With around 30% support in both states, AfD is aiming to govern at the state level, but would most likely need a coalition partner due to its controversial views. The Christian Democratic Union (CDU) is hoping to keep AfD at bay and is banking on incumbent governors to push the party past AfD in both states. However, forming new state governments could be difficult given the current political landscape.
The three parties in Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s governing coalition are already weak in Saxony and Thuringia, risking dropping below the 5% threshold needed to stay in the state legislatures. The domestic intelligence agency has AfD branches in both states under official surveillance as “proven right-wing extremist” groups. The political situation is complicated by the presence of the Left Party in Thuringia, which has slumped nationally. Discontent with the current government has fueled support for both AfD and the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), particularly in the less prosperous east of Germany.
The rise of anti-immigration sentiment has contributed to AfD’s strength in the region, while Wagenknecht’s BSW combines left-wing economic policies with an immigration-skeptic agenda. The CDU has also increased pressure on the national government for a tougher stance on immigration. Germany’s stance on Russia’s war in Ukraine is also a key issue, with both AfD and BSW opposing weapons deliveries to Ukraine. Wagenknecht has criticized the decision to deploy long-range missiles to Germany in 2026 by the German government and the U.S.
The upcoming elections in Saxony and Thuringia could produce painful results for the unpopular national government, as well as determining the future political landscape in these states. Depending on the performance of the parties in the national government, forming new state governments could be particularly challenging. Germany’s next national election is scheduled for a little over a year from now, with the far-right AfD and the left-wing BSW playing significant roles in shaping the country’s political direction. The results of the election in Saxony and Thuringia could have far-reaching implications for the future of German politics.
