The Cook Political Report, a top non-partisan political handicapper, has shifted three key states towards Vice President Kamala Harris in her 2024 election showdown with former President Donald Trump. North Carolina, a battleground state that could determine the outcome of the presidential election, has been moved from leans Republican to toss up. Despite Trump narrowly edging out President Biden in the state four years ago, the race has tightened with Harris improving on Biden’s vote share by seven points. Trump has campaigned in the state multiple times since Biden dropped out of the race, outspending the Harris campaign in ads, but the Harris campaign currently has more ad reservations in the state.
In addition to North Carolina, the Cook Political Report also shifted Minnesota and New Hampshire from lean Democrat to likely Democrat. Despite polls indicating Trump making gains in these traditionally Democratic states in the weeks after the Biden-Trump debate, Harris has been able to reconstitute and energize the Democratic coalition, making it challenging for the Trump campaign to win in these states. North Carolina, Minnesota, and New Hampshire are now all classified as toss-ups or likely Democrat by leading non-partisan political handicappers.
Former President Barack Obama was the last Democrat to carry North Carolina in the race for the White House in 2008. With the race tightening between Harris and Trump in the state, both campaigns are ramping up their efforts to secure victory. Trump has campaigned in North Carolina multiple times since Biden dropped out of the race, while the Harris campaign currently has a significant ad reservation advantage over the Trump campaign in the state. The Cook Political Report’s ratings shift reflects the evolving dynamics of the 2024 election campaign.
The Cook Political Report’s shift in ratings for North Carolina, Minnesota, and New Hampshire comes as Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents unite behind Harris in the 2024 election. Harris replacing Biden at the top of the Democrats’ national ticket has helped energize the Democratic coalition and secure support in traditionally Democratic states. While Trump has made gains in some battleground states, Harris has been able to maintain or expand support in key states that have been reliably Democrat in past elections.
As the 2024 election campaign progresses, the dynamics of key battleground states like North Carolina, Minnesota, and New Hampshire will continue to evolve. The efforts of both the Harris and Trump campaigns in these states, as well as the shifting preferences of voters, will play a crucial role in determining the outcome of the presidential election. The Cook Political Report’s ratings shift reflects the changing landscape of the 2024 election and the strategic considerations facing both campaigns as they seek to secure victory in key states across the country.
