As the Democratic convention in Chicago approaches, the political landscape has shifted dramatically in the last 30 days. Doug Sosnik, a seasoned political strategist, outlines some key insights in his latest memo, indicating that Vice President Kamala Harris may have multiple pathways to victory in the Electoral College. The gender gap this year is expected to be larger than ever, and Harris has the chance to transform her campaign into a genuine movement. Sosnik also asserts that the pivotal battleground states that will determine the outcome of the election have remained consistent over the past eight years.
Sosnik praises Harris’ campaign performance, attributing her success in part to the fact that she is not Trump or Biden. He commends her joyful and confident demeanor, noting that she has been carefully managed in controlled environments so far, avoiding potentially challenging interviews. While Harris has not yet reached the level of leading a political movement, she is making strides towards that goal. Sosnik believes that with a successful convention and continued positive messaging, Harris could transition from leading a campaign to leading a movement, which could be unstoppable.
Looking ahead to the Democratic National Convention, Sosnik emphasizes the importance of Harris defining herself positively and making the election about the future and change. He highlights the challenge of managing dissent within the Democratic Party, particularly on issues like the war in Israel, which could be a potential pitfall for Harris. Sosnik stresses the importance of defining the election and positioning Harris as the change candidate.
Sosnik delves into the history of the gender gap in American politics, noting that events like Donald Trump’s presidency and the recent Supreme Court ruling on Roe v. Wade have influenced the current political landscape. With Harris as the nominee, the confluence of events suggests that there may be a historic gender gap in this election that could affect the outcome. Sosnik also discusses the ideological divide among Gen Z men and women and the reasons behind this shift.
When discussing the key swing states, Sosnik emphasizes the importance of understanding the educated nature of these states in predicting their voting patterns. He suggests that Harris may be more competitive in the Sun Belt swing states compared to Biden, given her policies and messaging strategy. Sosnik stresses the significance of understanding the voting patterns of nonwhite voters, white working-class voters, and independent voters in these swing states, as they can heavily influence the election outcome.
Regarding early voting, Sosnik highlights the changing trends in American politics where Republicans now do better in off-year elections while Democrats excel in presidential elections. He notes Trump’s mixed messaging on early voting, urging his followers to take advantage of it while simultaneously discouraging them from doing so. Sosnik underscores the importance of early voting in the upcoming election and the implications it may have on the final outcome.
