Claims made by Russia suggesting that they are ahead in the Artificial Intelligence (AI) race amidst the war in Ukraine have been challenged by a top expert. Despite the ongoing conflict driving an AI race between Kyiv, Moscow, and NATO nations, Russian President Vladimir Putin has prioritized AI development for years. Putin declared in 2017 that “Whoever leads in AI will rule the world,” leading to a significant increase in Russia’s AI market by 18 percent in 2022 alone. Additionally, Moscow allocated $54 million in their 2024 budget for AI investment, although this pales in comparison to the $1.8 billion allocated by the U.S. for AI in their defense budgets.
Former DIA intelligence officer Rebekah Koffler believes that it is highly unlikely that Russia is ahead of the U.S. in AI development. She highlights the different approaches taken by the two countries, with the U.S. focusing on technological advancement while Russia also incorporates AI into psychological warfare. Russia has been known to use disinformation campaigns, propaganda, digital fakes, and election interference as part of their strategy, a tactic that the U.S. and the West typically avoid. Koffler notes that Russia’s use of AI could give them an edge in decision-making technologies, but she remains skeptical that they are leading the U.S. in any aspect of AI development.
The U.S. began integrating AI technologies into warfare towards the end of the War on Terror in Afghanistan to alleviate the burden on forces as they attempted to gather intelligence on the Taliban. Human oversight has remained a critical component in the U.S. and its allies’ approach to responsible AI use in wartime, although it is unclear how this factor could affect adversarial strategizing in the AI battlefield. While Moscow was likely referencing the U.S. in their claims about AI development, they are also competing closely with China in this area. While Russia is likely ahead of allies like Iran and North Korea in the AI race, their position relative to China remains competitive.
China, considered the U.S.’s top competitor in AI development, has been making significant advancements in the field. Koffler believes that while Russia is likely ahead of certain allies, they are likely on par with China in AI development. The AI race between nations like Russia, the U.S., and China has intensified due to the applications of AI in wartime, particularly in the development of autonomous weapons systems. Despite different approaches to AI development, it remains to be seen which country will ultimately lead in this critical technology with implications for global dominance.
