Researchers from the University of Queensland and Penn State University have found that storm modelling outcomes vary significantly when using real hailstones instead of assuming spherical shapes. The researchers, Dr Joshua Soderholm and PhD candidate Yuzhu Lin, have created a ‘hailstone library’ by scanning and measuring samples to better understand hailstone shapes and structures. They found that using real, non-spherical hail shapes in storm simulations led to different pathways through the storm, growth patterns, landing spots, and impacts on the ground. This approach has the potential to significantly improve the accuracy of storm forecasts and benefit industries such as insurance, agriculture, and solar farming.
Conventional scientific modelling of hail has historically assumed spherical shapes, but Dr Soderholm and Ms Lin’s research has shown that hailstones can take on various irregular shapes, such as oblong, flat discs, or spiked. By using 3-D modelling of real hailstones, the researchers were able to demonstrate how these different shapes can affect a storm’s behavior and outcomes. This innovative approach to storm modelling has never been done before, and the researchers believe that it could lead to more accurate and reliable storm forecasts that can help people stay safe during hailstorms and minimize damage.
The creation of a ‘hailstone library’ with data from 217 hail samples has been a critical part of this research. By scanning and slicing these samples, researchers have been able to analyze the various shapes and structures of hailstones to build a comprehensive dataset. This global library of hailstone shapes will help scientists fine-tune storm simulations and improve the accuracy of weather forecasting models. Dr Soderholm emphasized the importance of this research in creating a clearer picture of hailstones and their impact on storm behavior, ultimately leading to more effective real-time predictions of hail size and location.
The potential applications of this research extend beyond the scientific community, with industries such as insurance, agriculture, and solar farming standing to benefit from more accurate storm forecasts. By being able to predict hail size and location in real-time, these industries can better prepare and mitigate potential damage caused by hailstorms. The study, published in the Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, highlights the significant potential of this research and its implications for improving public safety and minimizing economic losses.
Dr Soderholm, who is also a Research Scientist at the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, emphasized the importance of accurate storm modelling for predicting the behavior of storms and their impacts. The researchers’ study of hailstones and their irregular shapes has led to new insights into how hailstones interact with storms and the ground, ultimately affecting storm outcomes. By incorporating real hail shapes into storm simulations, researchers can create more realistic and reliable forecasts that benefit various industries and help people stay safe during severe weather events.
Provided by Higgins Storm Chasing, some of the hail samples used in the UQ dataset have contributed to the research on hailstone shapes and structures. The collaboration between researchers from different institutions and organizations has led to the development of a comprehensive hailstone library that is advancing our understanding of storm behavior and the impacts of hailstorms. With ongoing research and data collection, scientists are working towards improving the accuracy of storm forecasting models and providing valuable information for industries and the public to better prepare for hail events.