A recent study led by McGill University suggests that Earth’s natural forces could play a significant role in reducing Antarctica’s impact on rising sea levels, as long as carbon emissions are swiftly reduced in the coming decades. However, if emissions continue on the current trajectory, Antarctic ice loss could lead to even more future sea level rise than previously estimated. The Antarctic Ice Sheet is the largest ice mass on Earth, and understanding how it will respond to climate change is crucial in predicting future sea levels.
The study focuses on the interaction between the Antarctic ice sheet and the earth beneath it, and how this dynamic is influenced by carbon emission levels. This relationship has not been thoroughly explored in previous studies. Lead author Natalya Gomez, an Associate Professor at McGill, emphasizes the importance of understanding the domino effect of Antarctic ice melt due to the potential cost of sea-level rise reaching trillions of dollars by the end of the century.
As ice melts, its weight decreases, causing the land beneath it to rise in a process known as post-glacial uplift. This phenomenon can act as a natural brake on ice-mass loss if emissions are reduced quickly, limiting global warming. However, if carbon outputs continue at current levels and the planet heats up rapidly, the rebounding land may not be enough to slow the melting ice. Instead, it can push more ocean water away from Antarctica, accelerating sea-level rise along populated coastlines.
To reach their findings, the researchers developed a 3-D model of Earth’s interior using geophysical field measurements from the U.S. ANET-POLENET project. This project deployed sensitive instruments to record bedrock uplift and seismic signals across Antarctica, providing essential data for characterizing the three-dimensional variations of the Antarctic mantle. Co-author Maryam Yousefi notes that the 3-D model helps to predict how different areas will respond to melting ice, providing a more detailed understanding of the relationship between Antarctica’s ice and underlying earth.
The study, published in Science Advances, underscores the global impacts of climate change and the inequalities it brings. Island nations, which contribute the least to global emissions, are likely to bear the brunt of the consequences of rising sea levels. The collaboration between researchers from various institutions, funded by grants from the Canadian Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council, the U.S. National Science Foundation, and the Canada Research Chairs program, marks a breakthrough in predicting the impacts of climate change on rising seas and informing effective environmental policy.