Russia is in mourning following a terrorist attack at Moscow’s Crocus City Hall that killed at least 143 people. Despite ISIS claiming responsibility, Russian leaders have blamed Ukraine and its Western allies. President Vladimir Putin suggested that radical Islamists were operating at someone else’s behest. The Kremlin is keeping its options open, but ongoing strikes on Ukraine’s infrastructure indicate a possible escalation. Putin may increase attacks on Ukrainian troops and cities to divert attention from his security failures and gain domestic support for the war.
Putin’s recent landslide victory in the presidential election has strengthened his position, allowing him to focus fully on the war effort. Russian forces now have a military advantage over Ukraine, making it an opportune time for new offensives. Since invading Ukraine, Russia has reoriented its foreign policy to support its war aims, insulating itself from Western pressure. Russia has established supply chains with non-Western allies like Iran and North Korea to ensure a steady flow of weapons. By integrating non-Western states into allegiance structures like BRICS, Russia has reduced the risk of pressure to scale back the war.
Russia has portrayed the conflict in Ukraine as a proxy war with the United States, gaining support in the developing world. While Western support for Ukraine has waned, Russia has increased its confrontations with the West. Moscow has cultivated problems for Western countries, making it harder for them to focus on supporting Ukraine. The Russian government has also supported anti-Western forces globally, fueling instability. The West’s slow response to the Ukraine conflict, combined with other global problems, gives Russia an advantage in escalating the war.
Despite accusations of hypocrisy and double standards, the West has been slow to respond to the conflict in Ukraine. European capitals struggle to send weapons and support to Ukraine, while the United States faces partisan deadlock preventing funding for Ukraine. With Russia striking Ukrainian cities and gaining battlefield advantage, difficult times lie ahead for Ukraine. The Crocus City Hall attack in Moscow may further worsen the situation, as Russia could soon capitalize on its military advantage. The attack on Kharkiv could be a sign of more aggressive tactics to come, as the world looks on.
